CalcCards

Wordle Average Guesses Calculator

Updated May 3, 2026Reviewed by Calc.Cards Editorial TeamBaseline 3.42 (MIT solver). Adjustments: starting word penalty (random = +0.6, common = +0.2, optimal = 0), vocabulary depth (small = +0.5, large = -0.1), aggression (yellow-chasing = +0.3, gray-elimination = 0).2 sources

Wordle Average Guesses Calculator

Results

Average guesses3.6
vs MIT optimal (3.42)0.18
X/6 failure probability (%)0%
View saved →

Reference

How this is calculated

Methodology

Baseline 3.42 (MIT solver). Adjustments: starting word penalty (random = +0.6, common = +0.2, optimal = 0), vocabulary depth (small = +0.5, large = -0.1), aggression (yellow-chasing = +0.3, gray-elimination = 0).

Reviewed by

Calc.Cards Editorial Team

Sources

  • 1.MIT Sloan, Wordle optimal-strategy paper, 2022 (avg 3.421 with SALET)
  • 2.NYT Connections / Wordle stats team, Jan 2024 player averages

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"Wordle 942 4/6"

Wordle (Josh Wardle, 2021; sold to NYT, 2022) gives you 6 guesses to find a 5-letter word. The MIT Sloan team published an optimal solver in 2022: average 3.421 guesses when starting with SALET. The average human takes about 4.0.

This calculator estimates yours.

How to Use This Calculator

Starting word strategy. Optimal (SALET / CRANE / TRACE), common (ADIEU / AUDIO), or chaotic (random).

Vocabulary depth. How many obscure 5-letter words you know.

Information style. Gray-elimination (eliminate letters first) or yellow-chasing (chase confirmed letters).

The Formula

Baseline 3.42 ± strategy / vocabulary / aggression adjustments. Output is rounded to the nearest 0.1 since Wordle is whole guesses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the optimal starting word?

MIT says SALET. CRANE, TRACE, and SLATE are all near-optimal. ADIEU is popular but worse than the data suggests.

Has anyone gotten 1/6?

Yes. Probability is roughly 1 / 2,309 (the size of the solution list).

Why does my Wordle 6/6 still show as a win?

Because Wordle is a kind game.

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